Colombia's 2011 main coffee crop may be hit by rains

Bogota (november 21, 2010) : colombia's main coffee harvest in late 2011 may be hit by heavy rains early next year as growers fear plantations will not have enough sun for flowering after a lower-than-expected 2010 recovery and a poor 2009. colombia, the world's top producer of high quality arabica beans, expects 2010 production to hit around 9 million 60-kg sacks after falling to three-decade lows last year due to heavy rains in 2008 and a tree renovation program.
"la nina worsens towards the end of this year and the beginning of next year," said maria teresa martinez, forecast director for the government weather office, ideam. ideam predicts that torrential rains will last until march-may 2011 and rains in the top coffee producing area known as eje cafetero will be 30 percent to 50 percent above the average in november, december and january. some growers say rains could lead to a supply shortfall in 2011 for the main crop in october to december next year in the provinces of antioquia, caldas, quindio, risaralda and north of valle. the states account for 51.9 percent of total output. beans need sun eight months before the harvest, growers say.
"if there is no flowering there is no harvest. we need sun for at least 14 days in january as well as in february to have some output in the last months of the year," said carlos alberto gomez, representative of growers for the province of quindio, which is 5.8 percent of the country's main output.
colombian agriculture minister juan camilo restrepo said in mid-october that next year'scoffee production could be lower than 2010 due to heavy rains that have affected flowering in the andean nation. price differentials for colombian coffee have fallen recently as export supplies continued to improve after prices rose in may and june this year on fears the forthcoming crop would keep supplies tight in the world's no 3 exporter.
the country's exporters association said coffee output would rise 11 percent in 2010/11 (october-september) to 9 million bags versus the same period last year while f.o. licht saw 9.6 million sacks. private exporters have said rains could spoil the secondary crop in 2011, which colombia harvests from april to june and is the main harvest in the provinces of narino, cauca, huila and tolima, accounting for 32.7 percent of output.
precipitation could also hamper fertilisation in late january and early february by washing away fertilisers, said julio cesar marin, who represents about 8,000 small growers in the municipality of aguadas in the state of caldas. a smaller crop in the antioquia, caldas, quindio, risaralda and north of valle in the second quarter of next year will also be scant as there is less flowering, growers said.
"our (smaller crop) for the first half of next year is lost as coffee plants didn't have much flowering," said james maya, representative of coffee growers for the risaralda province, which weights 7.1 percent of the country's total output.