Seven of 10 traders, analysts and brokers surveyed by Bloomberg News said raw sugar traded in New York will advance next week. One predicted that prices will fall, and two estimated little change. Raw sugar rose 6.3 percent to 28.15 cents a pound yesterday on ICE Futures U.S. in New York, the biggest gain for a most-active contract in six weeks.
“India has been what’s spooked the market,” said Jimmy Tintle, an analyst at Transworld Futures in Tampa, Florida. “They can’t make up their mind on what they’re going to export,” Tintle said in a telephone interview yesterday.
Earlier this month, prices surged to a 29-year high on mounting concern that supplies from Brazil and India won’t meet demand. Brazil is the world’s largest grower.
India will be “cautious” on ending export limitations to ensure domestic supplies are adequate, K.V. Thomas, a junior farm minister, said on Nov. 15. “We will have good production for the next 20 months, but there may be a problem thereafter,” he told reporters in New Delhi.
India probably will produce 23.27 million metric tons in the year that began Oct. 1, 8.7 percent less than predicted by industry groups, according to data from farmers interviewed by SGS SA for Bloomberg. India’s government will decide on ending shipment limits after Nov. 21, Farm Minister Sharad Pawar said last week.
‘Deficit Forecasts’
“The sugar market should begin to recover an air of fundamental stability, based on deficit forecasts,” Michael McDougall, a senior vice president at Newedge USA in New York said, said in a note dated Nov. 17.
Seven of 10 survey respondents said white sugar traded on London’s Liffe exchange will gain, one forecast it will drop, and two predicted little change. Yesterday, refined sugar rose as much as 7.7 percent to $722.10 a ton on NYSE Liffe, the highest in a week.
White sugar’s premium over raw sweetener probably will widen, according to five of 10 people surveyed. Two estimated it will narrow, and three forecast little change.
In the attached chart, red bars are derived by subtracting bearish forecasts from bullish estimates for raw sugar, with readings above zero signaling that most respondents expect higher prices. The green line shows raw-sugar prices, and the blue line shows white sugar.
Bullish on raw sugar: 7 Bearish: 1 Neutral: 2
Bullish on refined sugar: 7 Bearish: 1 Neutral: 2
Widening refined premium: 5 Narrow: 2 Neutral: 3
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