Natural Gas has been a sell for ages. This hasn’t changed, although there is fairly strong consolidation going on between the $4 mark and the $3.80 level. Because of the nature of this sell off, you simply mustn’t buy this commodity.
Any breakout above the $4 mark will also certainly find the $4.40 mark, which could be another selling opportunity as America is simply swimming in extra Nat Gas at the moment. In fact, storage is becoming an issue. There should be less used now that summer is coming, and that should only drive prices lower.
(Source: http://www.dailymarkets.com/forex/2011/03/13/natural-gas-long-term-forecast-march-14-2011/)
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