Monday, March 21, 2011

OIL FUTURES: Crude Surges By $2/Bbl After Libya Air Strikes

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones) - Crude futures rose to $ 2 per barrel during the morning in Asia after the United Nations-sanctioned air strikes hit the Libyan air defenses on the weekend, prompting concern that a prolonged conflict could lead to disruptions in oil supplies.
"Libya's production is likely to be offline for a considerable time, and the latest UN measures just change their minds if they result in regime change - and that would clearly be a bearish development," said analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in a note to investors.
Libya exported about 1.2 million barrels of crude oil and natural gas last year, with more than 5% of imports to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, according to the International Energy Agency.
In the New York Mercantile Exchange, the future of light, sweet crude for April delivery traded at $ 103.05 a barrel by 0722 GMT, up from $ 1. 98 on the Globex electronic session and off a session high of $ 103.35 a barrel. May Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange rose $ 1.79 to $ 115.72 a barrel.
Continuing political instability in Yemen, Bahrain and Syria during the weekend continued to rattle investors' fears of supply problems, adding that oil prices higher.
"At the moment, we remain comfortable with our base case projections of the prices of relaxation during the second quarter to an average $ 105 a barrel, but it is likely that the risks of long-term safety can be increased and that (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) still has a long road ahead to avoid a supply crunch in the second half of the year, "said analysts at JPMorgan.
The Libyan oil production is at a minimum, the provision of only a few refineries in the country, analysts at Eurasia Group, said in a note. Regardless of which side wins the conflict, oil exports is likely to be absent for an extended period, either due to international sanctions or logistics of exports to world markets, they said.
"It seems that the supply disruption Libya has already been priced in, but the response of a" scorched earth "Gaddafi may cause distress to the ships traveling to the Mediterranean," analysts led by Stephen Schork said in a note.
Nymex April reformulated gasoline blendstock - the contract reference gas - rose 536 points to $ 3.0030 a gallon, while April heating oil traded at $ 3.0674, 431 points higher.
April ICE gasoil changed hands at $ 980.00 a tonne, up $ 7.75 from Friday's settlement.

(Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110321-701406.html)

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