Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Copper up on hopes for China growth, Fed, ECB action

coppermarketnews_004_432x480* Copper supported by Chinese vows to support economy

* Copper sheds nearly 1 percent for the month

* Coming up: Chinese official PMI on Wednesday

(Recasts, adds New York dateline, updates with New York closing copper price, adds analyst comments)

By Chris Kelly and Eric Onstad

NEW YORK/LONDON, July 31 (Reuters) - Copper inched up on Tuesday as investors remained hopeful for stimulus in Europe and in the United States and after Chinese officials promised further support for the economy ahead of the release of key data on manufacturing in the world's biggest metals consumer.

Copper bucked a generally weaker trend in the base metals complex, garnering support from a slightly firmer euro versus the dollar and prospects of improving Chinese demand for the metal this year after Premier Wen Jiabao was quoted as saying the country will step up policy fine-tuning in the second half to support economic growth.

"Markets are very much moving on the wider macro pictures but it's interesting that copper is outperforming other metals today so I think there is a recognition that the copper fundamentals are still in a relatively good shape, particularly on the back of the recent announcement out of China that they are going to be pumping more money into the economy," said Standard Chartered analyst Daniel Smith.

London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper ended up $11 at $7,560 a tonne.

In New York, the September COMEX contract rose 0.15 cent to settle at $3.4175 per lb, after dealing between $3.4110 and $3.4570.

For the month, copper prices in both London and New York lost about 1 percent of their value.

COMEX trading volumes increased to nearly a third above the 30-day average at 57,000 lots in late New York business, according to Reuters data.

Copper prices have recovered by more than 3 percent from last week's one-month lows at $7,344.25 a tonne and $3.3320 per lb, largely on hopes of further central bank stimulus.

The expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi would announce new steps this week to shore up the fragile economy was twinned with caution that markets may be disappointed yet again after previous rallies were deflated when no action was taken.

U.S. economic data on Tuesday showing home prices up for a fourth straight month in May and an unexpected rise in consumer confidence in July may give the Fed some breathing room, analysts said.

"This may inhibit the Fed a little bit," Sterling Smith, vice-president of commodity research at Citibank's Institutional Client Group in Chicago said. "I think the big worry is going to be what we are going to get out of that unemployment report on Friday. That is going to be the single-most important number."

The Labor Department is scheduled to release its employment report for July on Friday, with non-farm payrolls expected to rise a modest 100,000, according to a Reuters poll.

Before Friday's U.S. jobs report, investors will be focused on China's official manufacturing sector index for July, to be released on Wednesday. The data will be scoured for more evidence that loosening steps taken by Beijing in the past few months have filtered down to the real economy, helping stimulate growth and metals demand.

China is the world's biggest market for refined copper, accounting for 40 percent of refined demand last year, but there is scant buying interest from consumers, traders said.

LEAD OUTLOOK

Lead hit its highest since May 25 but further gains have been capped by trade selling, with signs pointing to softer demand from the North American battery market in particular, traders and analysts said.

North American shipments of replacement automotive batteries in June fell 5.94 percent from May and dropped 7.72 percent from June 2011, a U.S. industry group said on Monday.

"Lead put in another strong performance as technical buying through $1,930 emerged but trade selling was seen as the market rose," trading house Sucden said in a research note.

Three-month lead on the LME, which earlier touched its highest in more than 2 months at $1,964 a tonne, closed down $31 at $1,920.

Metal Prices at 1800 GMT

Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2011 Ytd Pct
move
COMEX Cu 341.65 0.05 +0.01 343.60 -0.57
LME Alum 1888.00 -12.00 -0.63 2020.00 -6.53
LME Cu 7559.00 10.00 +0.13 7600.00 -0.54
LME Lead 1919.50 -31.50 -1.61 2035.00 -5.68
LME Nickel 15865.00 -385.00 -2.37 18710.00 -15.21
LME Tin 18095.00 -175.00 -0.96 19200.00 -5.76
LME Zinc 1842.00 -20.50 -1.10 1845.00 -0.16
SHFE Alu 15485.00 40.00 +0.26 15845.00 -2.27
SHFE Cu* 55180.00 180.00 +0.33 55360.00 -0.33
SHFE Zin 14710.00 90.00 +0.62 14795.00 -0.57
** Benchmark month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07



(Additional reporting by Silvia Antonioli in London; editing by Anthony Barker
and Sofina Mirza-Reid)



Source: Reuters

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