Friday, August 24, 2012

Soy rebounds on U.S. exports; corn, wheat firm


* Soy, corn up 0.8 pct, wheat gains 1.3 pct
* U.S. weekly soybean exports rise despite rally
* Dryness in Australia threatens wheat crop
* Rains seen helping Argentine corn crop -exchange   (Adds details, quotes)
By Naveen Thukral
SINGAPORE, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Chicago soybeans bounced back on Friday and were on track for their biggest weekly gain in a month, supported by higher-than-expected U.S. exports which showed a drought-fed rally has done little to temper demand.
Wheat firmed amid forecasts of below average rains in Australia, the world's second largest exporter, while new-corn rose after suffering its biggest one-day decline in two months on Thursday.
"Export sales of soybeans were pretty good which are supportive for the market," said one Melbourne-based analyst. "Soybeans are bit under valued at the moment when you look at the bean market in relation to corn."
A crop tour continued to give evidence of the devastation caused by the U.S. grain belt's worst drought in half a century which has lifted corn and soybean prices to all-time highs in recent weeks.
Corn and soy fields in Iowa, the No.1 growing state for both crops, have fallen victim to the historic drought and is expected to drag national yields below the government's latest projections, according to the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour.
In its latest findings, the annual tour projected Iowa's corn yield at 137.3 bushels per acre, down sharply from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's estimate of 141 bushels.
It pegged the state's average soybean pod count at 999.8 pods in a three-foot square, below the tour's three-year average of 1,255.5 pods. The USDA does not estimate soybean pod counts.
Soybeans were underpinned by solid export numbers in the U.S. government's weekly report on Thursday. Soybean export sales last week totaled 718,700 tonnes, above the high end of estimates for 650,000 tonnes. The market has been expecting high soybean prices to weaken export demand.
Chicago Board of Trade new-crop November soybeans have risen 5 percent this week, a fourth consecutive week of gains. December corn, which slid the most since June 21 on Thursday, is up about 1.8 percent this week, while wheat  has risen 1.3 percent.
On Friday, November soybeans rose 0.8 percent to $17.29-1/4 a bushel by 0433 GMT and December corn added 0.8 percent to $8.21-1/2 a bushel. December wheat gained 1.3 percent to $9.06 a bushel.
The wheat market is being aided by dryness in Australia.
"There is forecast of rain this week in eastern Australia but not enough to meet the average rainfall required," the Melbourne analyst said. "Western Australia continues to be dry."
Dry weather across Western Australia, the largest wheat producing state in the country, has triggered a series of downgrades in forecasts for yield projections.
Still, Australia's weather bureau sees a 70 percent chance the West Australian grain belt will receive above average rains in the next two months, as an analyst warned that up to 40 percent of the crop could be lost if dry conditions persist.
In Argentina, heavy rains have improved prospects for the upcoming corn season, following a 2011/12 crop reduced by drought, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in its weekly report. Corn planting is about to start in Argentina, the world's No. 2 exporter after the United States.
  Prices at  0433 GMT
  Contract        Last    Change  Pct chg  MA 30   RSI 
  CBOT wheat     906.00    11.25  +1.26%   874.61   52
  CBOT corn      821.50     6.75  +0.83%   769.29   55
  CBOT soy      1729.25    14.25  +0.83%  1588.18   64
  CBOT rice      $15.54    $0.12  +0.78%   $15.49   49
  WTI crude      $95.79   -$0.48  -0.50%   $89.17   60
  Currencies                                                
  Euro/dlr       $1.256   $0.026  +2.16%   
  USD/AUD         1.043   -0.013  -1.19%   
  Most active contracts
  Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
  RSI 14, exponential
                                                                                         
 
 (Editing by Himani Sarkar)

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