Sugar exports from Thailand, the second-largest shipper, may fall 5 percent in 2011 as local buyers are allotted a higher share of output, according to the Office of the Cane and Sugar Board.
Shipments may total 4.4 million metric tons in 2011 compared with 4.63 million this year and 5.1 million in 2009, Secretary-General Prasert Tapaneeyangkul said in an interview today. The allocation for local consumption will rise 8.7 percent to 2.5 million tons next year, Prasert said by phone.
Lower Thai exports will tighten global supplies and may help to extend a rally in raw-sugar prices that’s been driven by adverse weather in Brazil, the biggest producer. Shipments from Thailand of 4.4 million tons would be the lowest level since 2006, according to data on the board’s website.
“Our exports will become smaller, being a second year of decline,” Prasert said. Raw-sugar output is estimated at 6.9 million tons in the crop year from late November compared with more than 6.8 million tons in the current crop year, he said.
Raw-sugar futures touched 33.39 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York on Nov. 11, the highest level since January 1981. The March-delivery contract settled at 26.21 cents after slumping speculation commodities demand may decline if China increases borrowing costs to contain inflation.
Cane output in the crop year from late November may drop to about 65 million tons, said Prasert. That’s about 5 percent less than the current crop of 68.5 million tons. Still, recent rains boosted yields to 105 kilograms per ton of cane from 99, he said.
Better Yields
“Output won’t be as low as 60 million tons estimated earlier as persistent rainfall improved yields after the country faced drought for two consecutive years,” Prasert said. Cane losses from recent floods may total 100,000 tons, he said.
About two-thirds of Thailand has been affected by flooding in recent months, which also damaged rice fields and rubber estates, bolstering farm-commodity prices. Additional damage to cane output will be assessed as floodwaters recede, said Prasert.
The global raw-sugar surplus may be 2 million tons in 2010 2011, down from 3.22 million forecast two months earlier, Sergey Gudoshnikov, economist at the London-based International Sugar Organization, said in an interview Oct. 26.
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